Egypt and the Fallout

By: Lisa Fiorilli


The images and videos coming out of the Egyptian protests are truly monumental and staggering. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, there has not been such a popular mobilization of civilians for one cause. Interestingly, no opposition leader has directly assumed the leadership of the protests as of yet, which were originally organized through the use of internet and social media (which is new blocked incidentally), though El Baradei has joined in the protests on the ground.
This phenomenon, and its eventual conclusion, will have ramifications worldwide. It may have already forced the American government to reconsider its formerly unwavering support for Mubarak, and world leaders have released statements in the past few hours encouraging Mubarak to facilitate a transition to democracy.
The implication of this will affect Israel in very important ways. Egypt is one of the most important countries regionally that can be considered at peace with Israel, and Mubarak, as an American ally, has generally refrained from hostilities with Israel. However, what would occur if elections were held and the Muslim Brotherhood were to gain power?

This was pondered over in an interesting editorial that appeared today in Ynet News that was written by Sever Plocker, called "Whose Afraid of Democracy?". Within the editorial, he outlines the fear of democracy that exists within Israel, causing Israeli's to view the situation in Egypt with a sense of impending doom and fear. The reason behind this is that there is a genuine fear that democracy in the Middle East will lead to the ascendancy of groups that will renounce democracy once in power. By this, he specifically means Islamist groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.
However, Plocker goes on to dispel the fear that pervades Israeli opinion. He sympathizes with the desires and wishes of ordinary Egyptians to have their fundamental human rights respected and for the Mubarak regime to finally fall in favor of democracy. He points to other newer democracies that have learned to co-exist with neighbors. His final quote is an excellent portrait of his general theme, "the train of democracy is not a disaster, on condition that it doesn't veer off its tracks".
Interestingly, Haaretz proposes that he fall of Egypt, and the problems occuring in Lebanon, Jordan and other Arab states can benefit Israel in the long-term. Because of President Obama's public support of democracy in Egypt, the Arab states have likely seen that "the Americans will throw them under the bus". The article goes on to advocate that because of the current instability in the region, the US will have no other choice but to build an even closer rapport with Israel over key issues to ensure stability.
This leaves us with many questions about the consequences of the events in Egypt on the Palestinian-Arab conflict, more broadly.

Will a transition to democracy pose a benefit or a threat to Israel's security in the region? Why or why not?


Links:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4021393,00.html
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/for-obama-egypt-protests-may-garner-a-new-friend-israel-1.340237